AGES radar for infectious diseases - 11/12/2025

Summary

AGES took over national wastewater monitoring at the end of November 2025. It supports the monitoring of respiratory diseases.

The flu epidemic has officially begun, around four weeks earlier than in previous seasons. The SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased again slightly in recent weeks following a decrease in October. Cases of RSV have only been registered sporadically so far.

In the USA, a person has died for the first time worldwide following an infection with the H5N5 bird flu virus.

In 2025, the number of measles infections in the USA will reach its highest level since 1992.

What is Disease X? Can we prepare for it? In this month's topic, we take a look into the future.

In the news, we report on World AIDS Day, the World Malaria Report 2025 and the European Antibiotic Awareness Day.

Situation in Austria

AGES took over national wastewater monitoring at the end of November 2025. Every week, 24-hour composite samples are taken from 20 wastewater treatment plants across the country and analysed by AGES for SARS-Cov-2, influenza and RSV using PCR. In the case of SARS-Cov-2, all samples with a maximum Ct value of 34 are also sequenced.

The results are presented as a dashboard on abwasser.ages.at and the data is made available for download. The wastewater results are a valuable asset for human surveillance and will also be used as a key source for the creation of the radar from this edition onwards.

Influenza

In the first week of December, influenza viruses were detected in over 20 % of sentinel samples from medical practices participating in the Diagnostic Influenza Network Austria . This means that the flu epidemic has officially begun, around four weeks earlier than in previous seasons.

Influenza viruses A(H3N2) of subclade K currently dominate. There was a slight increase in hospital admissions with influenza, albeit at a very low level: 23 admissions to normal wards in calendar week (CW) 47, compared to 8 admissions in CW44. There was also a slight increase in AGES wastewater monitoring.

Influenza activity continues to rise in Europe. Influenza A is dominant in all European countries. Subtype A(H3N2) in particular is driving the increase in recent weeks. On 20.11.2025, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) published a risk assessment for influenza A(H3N2) subclade K. This is a new variant that has already been detected on all continents. As A(H3N2) has not been the dominant subtype in recent seasons, it is assumed that the immunity level in the Austrian population is lower than for other influenza types. In those countries in East Asia where the epidemic circulation of influenza viruses A(H3N2) of subclade K is currently declining again, no unusually severe courses of disease have been recorded for this variant.

The best preventive measure against severe influenza is the annual seasonal influenza vaccination. The currently circulating subclade K has genetic changes compared to the A(H3N2) vaccine strain selected for vaccination, which could lead to a lower effectiveness of the vaccination. However, initial assessments show that this year's influenza vaccination nevertheless offers good protection against a severe course, especially for children, adolescents and adults. In England, up to 75% of vaccinated children and adolescents showed protection against a severe course of the disease that would require medical treatment or hospitalisation. Vaccination also provided good protection against severe illness in adults, with similar vaccination effectiveness to previous years' flu vaccinations. However, a final assessment of vaccination effectiveness can only be made retrospectively after the end of the season.

In Austria, the flu vaccination is recommended from the age of 6 months and is available free of charge for all age groups in the public vaccination programme. The vaccination is particularly important for people with health risks for a severe course of the disease and their contact persons/household contacts, as well as for people who have an increased risk of infection due to life circumstances (e.g. pregnant women) or occupation. A nasal vaccine is available especially for children. Details can be found at www.impfen.gv.at/influenza and in the current 2025/2026 vaccination plan.

In episode 003 - Influenza & Co: How do I surf safely through the flu wave? of the AGES podcast "Courage to take risks", infection epidemiologist Fiona Költringer explains what the flu is all about and how you can best protect yourself against it.

Flu - AGES

In the sentinel system, the proportion of samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 is 10%, which is lower than the average for recent weeks. There has also been a decline in wastewater monitoring.

The number of hospital admissions due to severe acute respiratory infections diagnosed with COVID-19 has stabilised following a decline in November: Around 220 COVID-19 admissions per week were recorded in normal wards in each of the first three weeks of November, the highest number since December 2024.

SARS CoV-2 continues to circulate in the European Union and the European Economic Area (EU/EEA ), but is declining in all age groups. The impact on hospital admissions has so far been limited.

The COVID-19 vaccination is available free of charge in Austria and is recommended for anyone aged 12 and over who wants to reduce the risk of a potentially severe course of the disease. You can find more information on the vaccination and the indications in the Austria 2025/2026 vaccination plan.

Coronavirus - AGES

RSV

Since the start of the season, only isolated cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) have been recorded in the sentinel monitoring system. There have been no positive detections in wastewater monitoringto date. Hospital admissions with RSV infections have also been sporadic. Last year, the RSV season started in December and peaked in January and February 2025.

Children under the age of five and people over the age of 65 are at particularly high risk of contracting a severe RSV infection. Vaccination is therefore recommended from the age of 60.

There is currently no approved RSV vaccine for active immunisation of children. However, there are monoclonal antibodies for passive immunisation: Beyfortus (nirsevimab) is approved and recommended for the prevention of lower respiratory tract RSV disease in newborns, infants and young children during their first RSV season and in children up to 24 months of age who remain susceptible to severe RSV disease during their second RSV season. It is also available in 2025/26 in the free childhood vaccination programme of the federal and state governments and social insurance. A vaccination for pregnant women is also approved for the passive immunisation of children. Further information on the vaccinations can be found under RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) | Vaccination simply protects. and in the current 2025/2026 vaccination schedule .

RSV - AGES

International outbreaks

In the USA, a person has died for the first time worldwide after being infected with the H5N5 bird flu virus. The poultry farmer from the state of Washington was elderly and had previous illnesses. This virus variant has so far only been detected in animals.

H5N5 belongs to the group of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. The current wave of bird flu in Europe is caused by the H5N1 subtype, which mainly affects birds but has also been detected in mammals. On 20 November 2025, the whole of Austria was designated as an "area with increased risk" and "areas with greatly increased risk" were also defined. These measures are intended to protect Austrian poultry farms from further outbreaks and ensure that there is as little contact as possible between domestic poultry and wild birds. The following applies to poultry farmers in Austria: Comply with compulsory stabling in risk areas, avoid direct contact with wild birds and observe hygiene measures. Report illnesses in animals or unusual deaths immediately. Details on the current situation can be found in the AGES animal disease radar.

The risk for the general population in Austria is still considered to be low.

According to the current vaccination recommendations of the Federal Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection, vaccination against avian influenza is currently neither recommended nor intended for the general population due to the epidemiology, the specific incidence of infection and the low probability of infection. People who are particularly exposed, such as those who work with poultry, should generally be vaccinated against seasonal influenza (true flu) in order to reduce the risk of contracting influenza and avian influenza at the same time.

All information on bird flu can also be found in episode 10: The chickens are not laughing - bird flu in the focus of our AGES podcast Courage to take risks with expert Irene Zimpernik.

Avian influenza - AGES

In 2025, the number of measles infections in the USA reached its highest level since 1992: there were already 1,912 confirmed infections this year(CDC; as of 9 December 2025). Of these, 218 people had to be hospitalised, almost half of whom were children under the age of 5. Three people died from measles or its consequences. In 92% of those infected, no vaccination against measles had been documented, 3% had received one dose of MMR vaccine and a further 4% had received two doses of the vaccine.

As reported in the issue of 13 November 2025, Canada has lost its status as "measles-free". This could also happen to the USA, a country that had already eliminated measles in 2000.

The triple combination vaccination against measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) is available free of charge at public vaccination centres in Austria for all age groups. Two MMR vaccinations are recommended from the age of 9 months (absolutely before entering community facilities). For details see Vaccination Plan Austria 2025/2026.

Measles - AGES

Diphtheria Africa

There have been 20,412 suspected cases of diphtheria in the WHO African region this year, with 1,252 deaths. Eight countries are affected: Algeria, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, South Africa and Chad. This resurgence of diphtheria is classified by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as a serious public health problem. As there is an effective vaccine against diphtheria and most countries have robust disease surveillance systems in place, it poses only a low risk to the population in many regions of the world. However, the countries currently affected suffer from structural problems that often stem from armed conflicts. Displacement, high population density and overburdened healthcare systems make surveillance, education, prevention and treatment more difficult. A global shortage of diphtheria antitoxin further exacerbates the situation.

Together with local partners, the WHO is endeavouring to contain the further spread of the disease. To do this, infections must be recognised and reported quickly, the capacities of the healthcare systems must be strengthened and efforts must be made to increase vaccination rates.

Vaccination against diphtheria is included in the free vaccination programme in Austria and is recommended as part of the 6-fold vaccination as soon as possible from the 6th week of life, and in any case in the 3rd month of life.

Diphtheria - AGES

Topic of the month

Do you know the computer game Plague? The aim of the game is to design and develop a pathogen that destroys humanity. Basically, the public health experts are playing this game - but on the other side. The aim is to quickly recognise and contain diseases caused by novel pathogens and to develop antidotes, especially vaccines. Viruses and bacteria are constantly changing, developing new characteristics and therefore have the potential to cause new diseases or make existing diseases more dangerous. We must constantly be prepared for new dangers - for a "Disease X".

The WHO coined the term "Disease X " to describe an as yet unknown disease that could trigger an epidemic or pandemic in the future. It is a placeholder for a pathogen ("Pathogen X") that we do not know today, but which has the potential to cause the next global health crisis. In 2018, the WHO included Disease X for the first time in the list of diseases whose research has the highest priority worldwide: the Research & Development (R&D) Blueprint for Epidemics. In addition to Disease X, this list includes known threats: COVID-19, Ebola fever and Marburg disease, Lassa fever, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Nipah and Henipa virus diseases, Zika as well as Rift Valley and Crimean-Congo fever.

But what does it take to end up on the WHO's R&D Blueprint list as a "priority disease"? Priority diseases are selected using a structured process involving international experts in order to assess the threat posed by epidemics as objectively as possible - where are countermeasures lacking and where is there a need for research? There are established monitoring and control programmes or sufficient research for many known diseases, such as HIV. These therefore do not end up on the list. In contrast, Marburg virus disease and Rift Valley fever , for example, are considered "serious emerging infectious diseases" of zoonotic origin. The disease outbreaks they cause can be rapid and result in a high mortality rate. At the same time, there are few or no effective vaccines or treatments available. Any pathogen where a change can lead to rapid and uncontrolled spread is of particular concern.

Outbreaks are therefore closely monitored, and unfortunately there are also current examples: In Ethiopia, a total of 15 Marburg cases (12 confirmed, three probable) and eleven deaths were reported on 27 November 2025(ECDC); 349 contact persons were identified. Rift Valley fever is active in Senegal, among others, with 482 confirmed human cases and 31 deaths(ECDC; as of 20 November 2025), in Mauritania there were 52 cases and 15 deaths(ECDC; as of 9 November 2025). So far, no human-to-human transmission of Rift Valley fever has been documented.

What makes the top candidates?

The known pathogens from which novel variants or pathogens could emerge are numerous, but not unlimited. It is likely to be a zoonotic pathogen, i.e. a pathogen that can be transmitted from animals to humans. Around 70 to 80 per cent of all newly occurring infectious diseases are of zoonotic origin.

Current research shows that viral pathogens - especially RNA viruses - have the greatest potential to trigger the next Disease X. Their high mutation rate and ability to adapt quickly make them particularly dangerous. The top candidates include respiratory viruses such as coronaviruses(Coronaviridae) and influenza viruses(Orthomyxoviridae), which can spread rapidly through airborne transmission. The focus is also on vector-borne viruses such as Zika or dengue, which are transmitted by mosquitoes. Although highly pathogenic viruses such as Ebola or Nipah cause serious illnesses, they are usually localised. COVID-19 was the first example of a "Disease X" from the WHO list.

The drivers for the emergence of such diseases lie in the profound changes at the interface between humans, animals and the environment. These include deforestation, loss of biodiversity, climate change, intensive agriculture and wildlife trade as well as urbanisation, migration and global mobility. These factors create ideal conditions for spillover events, where pathogens are transferred from animals to humans. Regions with a high level of interaction between humans and animals, such as tropical areas with intensive land use, are particularly at risk. A study by Fanelli et al from 2025 mapped regions at high risk for the occurrence of diseases such as Ebola, Zika and Crimean-Congo fever: 9.3 % of the global land area is at high or very high risk of outbreaks of diseases such as Ebola fever, Zika, Crimean-Congo fever and other WHO priority diseases. Latin America is particularly affected (27.1 % of the area), followed by Oceania (18.6 %), Asia (6.9 %) and Africa (5.2 %). Europe only accounts for 0.2 %.

Global strategies in preparation for Disease X

In order to be prepared for this threat, the WHO is pursuing the goal of accelerating the development of vaccines, diagnostics and therapeutics with the R&D Blueprint. In 2022, the WHO launched a global pathogen prioritisation initiative in which over 200 scientists from 50 countries evaluated 28 virus families and one group of bacteria. A milestone in global pandemic preparedness is the WHO Pandemic Agreement, which was adopted by the World Health Assembly in May 2025. Among other things, it provides for a mandatory Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing System (PABS), which ensures the rapid sharing of samples and sequence data as well as the equitable distribution of vaccines and diagnostics. In the event of a pandemic, manufacturers must donate at least ten per cent of their production and provide further shares at fair prices. The One Health approach will be made mandatory and a global supply chain network will facilitate the rapid and equitable distribution of products. The agreement also promotes technology transfer, which should facilitate the production of vaccines and medicines worldwide.

One Health and Surveillance

The One Health approach, which takes an integrated view of human, animal and environmental health, plays a key role in prevention. The WHO and its partner organisations - the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) - have developed the One Health Joint Plan of Action (2022-2026) . It includes measures to analyse the drivers of zoonotic diseases, to reduce risk through sustainable land use and regulation of wildlife trade, and to expand integrated surveillance systems and early warning mechanisms. Surveillance is crucial for recognising the emergence of new pathogens at an early stage.

AGES and X

Even though AGES has no specific mandate in relation to Disease X, its surveillance activities in both the human and veterinary sectors form an important basis for dealing with future pathogens. Projects such as RAISE (Reinforcing Austrian Integrated Surveillance and Epidemiology), an EU-funded project, strengthen surveillance and the integration of data from human and veterinary medicine.

Messages

To mark World AIDS Day on 1 December 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) is highlighting the increasing importance and danger of HIV drug resistance in its new "Integrated Drug Resistance Action Framework 2026-2030". At the end of 2024, around 40.8 million people worldwide were living with HIV, 1.3 million were newly infected and 630,000 died from HIV-related causes. Despite major advances in diagnostics and treatment, the decline in new infections and deaths is not progressing as quickly as the WHO has set itself the target for 2030. The first signs of resistance to dolutegravir - a key active ingredient in modern HIV therapies - are particularly relevant, especially if the viral load does not fall sufficiently despite treatment.

According to the latest cohort report, there were 9,550 HIV-positive people living in Austria in 2024. Although Austria has one of the highest HIV test rates in Europe, infections are still recognised late: Around a quarter of those infected already have immunodeficiency, defined as a CD4 cell count below 200/µl, at the time of diagnosis.

There are still gaps in care, particularly for children and key populations - including men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs, transgender and gender-diverse people and sex workers. These groups have an increased risk of infection worldwide, but often have more difficult access to prevention and medical care.

The World Malaria Report 2025 was published on 4 December 2025. It is based on data from 80 countries where malaria is endemic and shows the global trends in diseases, deaths and progress compared to the WHO Malaria Strategy 2016-2030 (Global Technical Strategy - GTS). This year, the report focuses in particular on increasing resistance to anti-malarial drugs as a key challenge.

Around 282 million malaria cases and 610,000 deaths were estimated worldwide in 2024 - a slight increase compared to 2023 (approx. +9 million cases; +12,000 deaths). Almost 95% of deaths again occurred in the WHO Africa region, mainly in children under five years of age. Nigeria recorded the highest burden with 68.5 million estimated cases.

New prevention measures, such as malaria vaccines and the use of mosquito nets treated with two insecticides, prevented around 170 million cases and 1 million deaths, according to the WHO. To date, 24 countries have included the vaccines in their regular vaccination programmes; seasonal malaria chemoprevention reached 54 million children, up from 0.2 million in 2021. Elimination continues to progress: 47 countries and 1 territory are certified malaria-free, most recently the Cape Verde Islands and Egypt (2024) and Georgia, Suriname and East Timor (2025).

At the same time, growing resistance is jeopardising the progress made so far: partial resistance to artemisinin has been confirmed or is likely in at least eight African countries, and the first losses of efficacy have been observed in combination therapies with artemisinin. However, artemisinin-based combination therapies are the backbone of malaria treatment: if artemisinin and the partner drug work more slowly, resistance develops more quickly and therapeutic failures become more frequent.

In addition, pfhrp2 gene deletions - genetic changes in certain malaria parasites - undermine the reliability of common rapid tests. 48 countries report that Anopheles mosquitoes are increasingly resistant to pyrethroids, the insecticides that have long been standard in impregnated mosquito nets and indoor spraying. The invasive mosquito Anopheles stephensi is spreading in urban centres in nine African countries.
In addition, conflicts, extreme weather events and stagnating global funding increase the risks of rising cases and deaths: in 2024, only 3.9 billion US dollars were available for malaria control - less than half of the GTS target of 9.3 billion US dollars.

Every year on 11 November, the European Antibiotic Awareness Day reminds us of the importance of the responsible use of antibiotics and how necessary education about antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains.
The latest data shows that Europe is lagging behind the targets in the fight against AMR. Antibiotic consumption increased in 2024 and is higher than in 2019, although a reduction of 20 per cent is to be achieved by 2030.

The increase in bloodstream infections that are difficult to treat is particularly worrying. The EU-wide incidence of Escherichia coli with resistance to third-generation cephalosporin antibiotics has risen by 5.9% since 2019, and that of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates by more than 60% - in each case contrary to the reduction targets for 2030. The only positive development was the incidence of bloodstream infections with methicilin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), which in 2024 was 20.4% below the 2019 baseline; the 20% reduction target has therefore already been achieved across Europe(EARS-Net Annual Epidemiological Report 2024).

In addition to these target indicators, EARS-Net shows increasing resistance rates for numerous other pathogens, including carbapenem-resistant E. coli, vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium and all monitored resistance forms of Streptococcus pneumoniae. In total, resistant infections cause over 35,000 deaths per year in the EU/EEA - and the trend is rising.

Data from Austria also show a similar picture: While the penicillin resistance rate for S. pneumoniae has remained stable at a low level for years in the area of gram-positive pathogens and the MRSA rate continues to decline, a small but steady increase in carbapenem resistance in E. coli and K. pneumoniae has been recorded in the area of gram-negative pathogens(Resistance Report Austria - AURES 2023).

About the radar

The AGES Radar for Infectious Diseases is published monthly. The aim is to provide the Austrian health services and the interested public with a quick overview of current infectious diseases in Austria and the world. The diseases are briefly described, the current situation is described and, where appropriate and possible, the risk is assessed. Links lead to more detailed information. The "Topic of the month" takes a closer look at one aspect of infectious diseases.

How is the AGES radar for infectious diseases compiled?

Who: The radar is a co-operation between the AGES divisions "Public Health", Knowledge Management and Risk Communication.

What: Outbreaks and situation assessments of infectious diseases:

  • National: Based on data from the Epidemiological Reporting System (EMS), outbreak investigation and regular reports from AGES and the reference laboratories
  • International: Based on structured research
  • Topic of the month (annual planning)
  • Reports on scientific publications and events

Further sources:

Acute infectious respiratory diseases occur more frequently in the cold season, including COVID-19, influenza and RSV. These diseases are monitored via various systems, such as the Diagnostic Influenza Network Austria (DINÖ), the ILI (Influenza-like-Illness) sentinel system and the Austrian RSV Network (ÖRSN). The situation in hospitals is recorded via the SARI (Severe Acute Respiratory Illness) dashboard.

For the international reports, health organisations (WHO, ECDC, CDC, ...) specialist media, international press, newsletters and social media are monitored on a route-by-route basis.

For infectious diseases in Austria, the situation is assessed by AGES experts, as well as for international outbreaks for which no WHO or ECDC assessment is available.

Disclaimer: The topics are selected according to editorial criteria, there is no claim to completeness.

Suggestions and questions to:wima@ages.at

As the response to enquiries is also coordinated between all parties involved (knowledge management, MED, risk communication), please be patient. A reply will be sent within one week.

The next AGES-Radar will be published on 22 January 2026.

Data on notifiable diseases

Case numbers of notifiable diseases according to the Epidemics Act, the figures are shown for the previous month and, in each case for the period from the beginning of the year to the end of the previous month, the figures for the current year, for the previous year, as well as the median of the last 5 years for comparison (Epidemiological Reporting System, as of 10.12.2025).

Pathogens202520242020-2024 (median)
NovJan-NovJan-NovJan-Nov
Amoebic dysentery (amoebiasis)09139
Botulism b0011
Brucellosis17116
Campylobacteriosis b4516.5876.4455.863
Chikungunya fever015113
Cholera0000
Clostridioides difficile infection, severe course39633717522
Dengue fever512519650
Diphtheria0333
Ebola fever0000
Echinococcosis caused by fox tapeworm1162419
Echinococcosis caused by dog tapeworm4252728
Spotted fever (rickettsiosis caused by R. prowazekii)0000
Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)6144159159
Yellow fever0000
Haemophilus influenzae, invasive a5928663
Hantavirus disease0291729
Hepatitis A122366939
Hepatitis B69883976907
Hepatitis C84929988856
Hepatitis D26117
Hepatitis E3504357
Whooping cough (pertussis)761.79014.862627
Polio (poliomyelitis)0000
Lassa fever0000
Legionnaires' disease (legionellosis) d24393337282
Leprosy0100
Leptospirosis5183714
Listeriosis b1314137
Malaria1697368
Marburg fever0000
Measles015250925
Meningococcus, invasive c029158
Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)0000
Anthrax0000
Mpox f3212424
Norovirus gastroenteritis b1773.0753.1761.785
Paratyphoid fever0011
Plague0000
Pneumococcus, invasive c59841712431
Smallpox0000
Psittacosis0022
Puerperal fever

0

0

0

0

Rotavirus gastroenteritis b571.078819505
Glanders (Malleus)0000
Rubella0000
Relapsing fever0000
STEC25906798439
Salmonellosis b851.4511.3611.136
Scarlet fever202355677
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)0000
Shigellosis b3832425680
Other viral meningoencephalitis13176161127
Rabies0000
Trachoma (grain disease)0000
Trichinellosis0155
Tuberculosis28353366365
Tularemia56410743
Typhoid fever05116
Bird flu (avian influenza)0000
West Nile virus disease01374
Yersiniosis b77788113
Zika virus disease1300

 

a Diseases are assessed according to the case definition. Diseases for which a case definition exists are shown, with the exception of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. As a rule, confirmed and probable cases are counted. Subsequent notifications or entries may result in changes.

b Bacterial and viral food poisoning, in accordance with the Epidemics Act.

c Invasive bacterial disease, in accordance with the Epidemics Act.

d Includes only cases with pneumonia.

e Due to lack of case definition before 2025, only cases from 2025 onwards are shown; the median is also only calculated from 2025 onwards

f Mpox has been notifiable since 2022; the median is only calculated for the years in which notification is mandatory.

 

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Last updated: 11.12.2025

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